HIGHLIGHTS
A major humanitarian emergency persists in the Balkans. Although a peace accord was signed on 10 June, following three months of civil unrest in Kosovo Province of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, thousands of refugees, IDPs and returnees will continue to need emergency food and medical assistance in the coming months.
The worst drought in decades has severely affected food production in the Near East, with sharp reduction in output in Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Jordan, Syria and Israel. Food supply prospects are of particular concern in Jordan, as export revenues and food import capacity have fallen sharply. In Afghanistan, the lowest precipitation for 40 years, increased pest infestations and lower plantings due to diversion of area to more lucrative cash crops have sharply reduced the 1999 cereal output.
Serious food supply difficulties persist in DPR Korea where food shortages have resulted in chronic nutritional problems with serious long-term implications. In Indonesia, despite some recovery in production, large segments of the population remain severely exposed to food insecurity.
In southern Africa, the food situation remains extremely difficult in Angola for around 1 million additional IDPs following an escalation in civil unrest. Food supply difficulties are also anticipated in Zimbabwe where food prices have increased reflecting a reduced harvest and low carry-over stocks.
In eastern Africa, the outlook for 1999 crops is mixed. In Ethiopia, output of secondary "belg" crops is reported to have fallen sharply due to the failure of rains. Food supply difficulties are particularly serious in Somalia, where access to food aid is expected to deteriorate due to a resurgence in fighting in the south. Armyworms have damaged crops in several countries, including Kenya, Somalia, Tanzania and Uganda.
Food security remains precarious in Sierra Leone where insecurity continues to hamper agricultural rehabilitation and distribution of food aid. Prospects are better in Liberia but security remains unstable and the country continues to rely heavily on humanitarian assistance. The 1999 crop season has started in the Sahel, following the arrival of rains.
In Central America, the area under cereals and beans is expected to be below average in 1999/2000 due to low prices. In Mexico, crops, livestock and pastures have been seriously affected by drought in several northern states, while in Cuba a prolonged dry spell in parts seriously affected minor foodcrops and pastures. In South America, maize production in Chile was poor due to drought.
In the CIS, 1999 grain prospects are better than at the same time last year. Output is expected to recover in the Russian Federation, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. However, persistent economic problems keep yields below average and grain supplies are likely to remain tight in 1999/2000, particularly in the Russian Federation.
In the United States, despite generally favourable weather, wheat output in 1999 is expected to fall by 12 percent due to the lowest winter area planted since 1972/73. Maize planting is complete under favourable conditions. In Canada, wet and cool weather hampered wheat planting in May but if conditions improve farmers could complete planting in coming weeks.
In Australia, prospects for 1999 winter grain crops have improved following the arrival of widespread rains in late-May.