In northern Africa, harvesting of winter grains is underway. Conditions have been mixed throughout the sub-region. In Morocco and Tunisia, wheat production is expected to fall this year due to inadequate rainfall and reduced planting. A sharp drop in barley production is also forecast in Morocco. In contrast, favourable conditions in Algeria and Egypt benefited both wheat and coarse grains, and output is forecast to increase. Planting of 1999 paddy is underway in Egypt.
In western Africa, rainfall so far has been erratic, increasing the risk of crop losses. Overall, the main maize crop is satisfactory in the south, while planting of millet and sorghum is almost complete in the north. The food outlook in Sierra Leone is very unfavourable due to persistent insecurity. Food supply and crop prospects have improved in Liberia due to peace and rehabilitation programmes, but the food situation remains precarious. In the Sahelian countries, planting of coarse grains is in progress following the start of the rains in April. Seed availability is generally adequate following record crops in the main producing countries in 1998.
In central Africa, coarse grain planting is underway in Cameroon and Central African Republic. Agriculture remains constrained by civil strife in the Republic of Congo and the Democratic Republic of Congo, where another poor B-season crop is about to be harvested.
In eastern Africa, early prospects for 1999 foodcrops are mixed. In Tanzania and Uganda, main season crops are being harvested and output is forecast to be normal/above normal, reflecting favourable weather. In Kenya and SoMalia, 1999 main season cereal production is anticipated to be poor due to low and erratic rains and damage by armyworms. In Ethiopia, prospects for "belg" crops are unfavourable due the failure of rains. In Sudan, 1999 wheat production is well below average due to reduction in area planted. In Eritrea, land preparation is underway for main season crops, but the performance of the short rains from March to May was poor.
In southern Africa, harvesting of 1999 main season cereal crops is complete. Despite abundant rains at the beginning of the season, dry spells and high temperatures from February in some countries affected yields more than anticipated earlier. Aggregate cereal output is estimated to be below average, as last year. However, production varies considerably. Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia had good crops, while production in Madagascar and Swaziland is anticipated to be close to average. In South Africa, cereal output is estimated to be lower than last year's reduced crop due to floods and dry spells. In Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia cereal production is higher than in 1998 but remains below average. In Angola, despite favourable weather during the season cereal production is below last year due to renewed civil war.
In Asia, dry weather in the first two dekads of June benefited harvesting of the winter wheat crop in main growing areas in northern China. More rain, however, is needed for emerging rice and maize crops in the south. Monsoon rains intensified over India, reaching as far north as Punjab/Haryana. The rains also favoured early planting of (kharif) rice and coarse grain crops. A normal monsoon, the 11th in succession, is forecast. In Pakistan, favourable weather from mid-February through April improved late season crop prospects for maturing wheat, indicating an upward revision in production. In Bangladesh, torrential rains resulted in floods in the south-east, resulting in some damage to crops. Current indications suggest that the country will receive heavy monsoon rainfall this year, as last year, raising concerns for widespread flooding and crop losses. Widespread and heavy rains also slowed rice planting in Japan, but boosted moisture supplies in southern and central parts. Dry weather across the Korean Peninsula is raising concerns for important food crops in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, where rainfall has generally been lower than average since the beginning of the year. Much will depend on precipitation in the next two critical months for developing rice and maize. In Thailand, rainfall favoured main-season rice and maize, but in northern parts of Vietnam, some crop damage is reported due Tropical Cyclone Maggie. Elsewhere, in the Philippines, drier weather in the second dekad of June eased earlier wet conditions, whilst in main rice growing areas of Indonesia, irrigation supplies are reported to be adequate for the second-season crop. The most severe drought in decades drastically reduced wheat production in several countries in the Near East. In Jordan, 1998/99 wheat production is estimated at less than 13 percent of 1997/98. Well below average wheat production is also anticipated in Iraq and Syria. In Afghanistan, 1999 cereal output is expected to decline due to low rainfall and snow cover last winter, insecurity and shortage of inputs. In the eight CIS countries in Asia, main crop planting is underway in Kazakhstan. Moisture levels have been satisfactory, but a shortage of funds/credit is expected to reduce the area sown. In Uzbekistan aggregate sown area remained unchanged but higher yields on private plots could raise output this year. In Turkmenistan grain production increased sharply in 1998 and only a marginal increase is forecast this year. In Tajikistan, the area sown to grains (notably wheat) declined and output is now forecast to decline to 420 000 tonnes compared to 510 000 tonnes last year. In Armenia, production is expected to fall due to a dry autumn and winter which reduced area sown and damaged winter wheat. In Kyrgyz Republic, a shift to more profitable crops continues and grain production could fall to about 1.5 million tonnes. In Azerbaijan, heavy rains favoured production, which is likely to remain at around 1 million tonnes, similar to last year. In Georgia, output could increase to 0.85 million tonnes compared to 0.8 million tonnes in 1998. In the Baltic countries, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania winter wheat and rye benefited from a mild winter and the early outlook for spring grains is satisfactory.
In Central America and the Caribbean, early rains favoured planting of 1999/2000 first season cereal and bean crops. Area planted is expected to be average in most countries, with the exception of Honduras where low prices are a disincentive. Given normal conditions, production is expected to recover from last year, which was affected by hurricane "Mitch". In Mexico, a prolonged dry spell in several northern states severely affected crops, livestock and pastures. In Cuba, unusually dry weather in recent months seriously affected minor foodcrops and pastures, particularly in eastern provinces. In contrast, weather conditions favoured development of crops in Haiti and the Dominican Republic and average output is forecast.
In South America, harvesting of 1999 maize is complete in most southern countries. Average production is provisionally forecast, except in Chile, where output is poor due to a severe drought. In the Andean countries, harvesting of 1999 maize and other coarse grains is underway in Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador, and average to above-average output is forecast. Potato production is forecast to be above average in the first two countries. In Colombia, planting of 1999 coarse grains and paddy is almost complete. Maize production is expected to decline due to unfavourable weather at planting, while above-average output of paddy is anticipated. In Venezuela, 1999 paddy production is estimated to be slightly below average.
In Europe, latest indications confirm lower cereal production in the EC, 4 percent below 1998 at 202.5 million tonnes. This is due to reduced planting and unfavourable weather in parts. Drought conditions affected wheat in one of Spain's major producing areas and also in parts of Portugal, while ongoing maize planting in southwest France has been severely affected by heavy rains. Lower cereal output in 1999 is also expected in several eastern European countries due to reduced planting and/or adverse weather. In the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, prospects for 1999 cereal production remain uncertain but output is likely to fall. Winter wheat planting was reduced while shortages of fuel and fertilizer and insecurity may have affected spring planting. In Kosovo Province, 1999 crop production will be extremely low, due to recent unrest. In the four CIS countries in Europe, an early, mild spring allowed early spring planting and improved conditions for winter crops. However, untimely frosts in May in parts of Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine and economic problems are expected to depress yields. In Moldova, financial problems and limited marketing opportunities are expected to keep the 1999 harvest close to last year's level of 2.7 million tonnes. In the Russian Federation, FAO's early forecast of grain and pulse output remains at 65 million tonnes, slightly below the five year average but about 10 million tonnes higher than last year. This is due to incentives and expectations of normal weather. In Ukraine, the early outlook is good, as crops are in good condition and planting of spring grains is nearing completion. The aggregate output of grains and pulses is tentatively forecast at 32 million tonnes, 10 percent above last year.
In North America, wheat production in the United States is forecast to fall by about 12 percent, to some 61 million tonnes, due to the lowest area of winter wheat planted since 1972/73. Maize planting is near completion under generally favourable conditions. However, the area is expected to be lower than last year, and aggregate coarse grain production is forecast to fall by about 3 percent to 262 million tonnes. In Canada, wet and cool weather hampered wheat planting in May. However, planting could advance quickly if conditions improve in the coming weeks. Coarse grains planting will also depend on weather in the coming weeks, but indications point to a lower area due to a switch of land to other non-cereal crops.
In Oceania, prospects for 1999 winter crops in Australia are favourable following the arrival of widespread rains in late-May. Favourable production of around 21 million tonnes is expected in 1999.