Severe weather disturbances have seriously jeopardised food prospects and supplies in various parts of the world and resulted in humanitarian crises. In Asia, heavy monsoon rains, tropical storms, typhoons and floods brought havoc to a number of countries including China, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Cambodia, Thailand, Viet Nam and Laos. The natural disasters resulted in enormous economic damage, whilst hundreds of people were killed and hundreds of thousands evacuated. Serious food and medical emergencies are emerging in a number of areas, whilst relief operations are being impeded by lack of access due to flood waters. In contrast to recent floods, drought seriously affected food prospects in northern China, Islamic Republic of Iran, Korea DPR and Mongolia. The food supply situation also remains extremely tight in the eight CIS countries in Asia, which will result in sharply higher cereal import and food aid needs than last year. The worst affected countries are Armenia, Georgia and Tajikistan. Lower harvests are also expected in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. In the Near East, persistent drought continues to affect crop and livestock production in many parts, particularly in Iraq and Afghanistan, where millions of people are suffering from severe food shortages.
In eastern Africa, prospects are poor for 2000 crops due to continued drought
and population displacement. More than 20 million people already face severe
food shortages, which are likely to persist well into 2001. The worst affected
countries include Kenya, where the main crop
failed, Eritrea
and Ethiopia,
where more than 10 million people are estimated to need food assistance. Some
2.4 million people, mostly in southern Sudan,
will also need food assistance, whilst several regions in Tanzania
face acute food shortages due to drought. Dry conditions and drought in northern
Africa, also mean that 2000 wheat production will be below normal and
some 14 percent lower than last year. In contrast in southern Africa, despite
dry weather at the beginning of the season and torrential rains subsequently,
main producing areas benefited from favourable precipitation. Consequently production
recovered substantially in South Africa, whilst
Malawi, Zimbabwe,
Zambia, Namibia
and Botswana had above-average harvests. Serious
food supply difficulties, however, persist in Angola,
where civil war has led to severe food shortages and continues to disrupt agricultural
production. Conditions were also generally favourable in western Africa, (Senegal,
The Gambia, Mauritania
and Mali) due to widespread and abundant precipitation.
However, harvest prospects are less favorable in the rest of the Sahel, particularly
in eastern Burkina Faso, Niger
and Chad. Food supply prospects in Liberia
and Sierra remain poor due to past and ongoing civil strife.
In Europe, in the four CIS countries west of the Urals, the food outlook in the Russian Federation is expected to improve with a better 2000 grain harvest, though it remains mixed in Ukraine due to erratic weather and ongoing problems in the agriculture sector. In the Balkans, Bosnia Herzegovina, Croatia and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia were affected by hot dry weather in the spring and summer, resulting in sharply reduced spring crops.
The cereal outlook in El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua in Central America, Brazil and Bolivia in South America and Haiti and Jamaica in the Caribbean, remains poor or uncertain due to adverse weather during the season.
Africa
In eastern Africa, the outlook for the 2000 crops is grim due to continued drought and war-displacement. As a result, the current critical food shortages are set to persist well into 2001. More than 20 million people are already facing severe food shortages. In Kenya, the long rains cropping season, which normally accounts for 80 percent of total annual food production, has largely failed due to a severe drought. The severe scarcity of water and pasture in northern and eastern parts resulted in large livestock losses. Nearly 3.3 million people are now estimated to be in need of urgent food assistance. In Eritrea, the food supply situation of the more than 1.5 million war-displaced people gives cause for serious concern. The mass displacement of farmers from the agriculturally rich regions of Gash Barka and Debub, accounting for more than 70 percent of the country's cereal production, has jeopardised this year's cropping season. Continued drought, in parts, has also aggravated the food supply situation of nearly 340 000 people. In Ethiopia, the overall food supply situation remains highly precarious. With the failure of the secondary "Belg" season crop, the number of people in need of assistance has increased to more than 10 million. In eastern and southern Ethiopia, despite some beneficial rains recently, large numbers of people whose livestock and livelihoods have perished due to drought, depend solely on food assistance. In Somalia, a good main ("Gu") season crop is anticipated. Earlier in the year, a satisfactory secondary ("Deyr") season harvest in parts of the south has improved the food supply situation. However, serious food shortages are reported in several southern and northern parts of the country due to drought. Malnutrition rates are also increasingly reported, reflecting loss of livelihoods due to recurrent droughts, and longer-term effects of years of insecurity and lack of investment in the economy. In Sudan, despite a stable food supply situation overall, nearly 2.4 million people in the south and in pockets in Kordofan, Darfur, Red Sea and Kessela in the north depend on food assistance due to crop losses and population displacement by civil strife. In Tanzania, several regions are facing acute food shortages due to drought during the 1999/2000 cropping seasons. Production is expected to be reduced in the regions of Dodoma, Singida, Arusha, Morogoro, Kilimanjaro, Shinyanga, Mwanza and parts of Tanga due to late and insufficient rains. In Uganda, the overall food supply situation is satisfactory. However, the situation remains precarious in the north-east, mainly due to last season's poor harvest and loss of cattle due to raids. Food assistance continues to be needed for nearly 112 000 people in Bundibugyo District, in the west, displaced by civil unrest.
In southern Africa, despite dry weather at the beginning of the season and subsequent torrential rains which resulted in crop losses and severe flooding in several areas, the main growing areas in the sub-region benefited from abundant precipitation. However, the outturn varies from country to country. Production recovered substantially in South Africa, where large exportable surpluses of maize are available. There were also bumper harvests in Zimbabwe, Zambia, Namibia and Botswana. In Malawi, where maize production remained virtually unchanged from the record of last year, exportable surpluses are also available. By contrast, production declined in Mozambique following crop losses in southern parts due to devastating floods. The maize output also declined in Madagascar, affected by drought in the south and cyclones in the north. In Angola, where the persistent civil conflict continues to disrupt agricultural production, maize production fell for the second consecutive year. In Swaziland, a decrease in plantings, coupled with torrential rains that reduced yields, resulted in a sharp decline in this year's maize output. In Lesotho, the output declined slightly from last year's average crop.
Reflecting this year's good cereal harvest, the overall food supply situation in the sub-region is anticipated to improve. However, food assistance is still needed for 1.9 million displaced people in war-affected Angola and in parts of Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique and Swaziland where production was reduced by dry weather or floods.
In northern Africa, wheat production in 2000 is estimated at about 9.7 million tonnes, some 14 percent less than last year's level and below the average of the last five years. The coarse grains crop is estimated at 7.6 million tonnes, 20 percent down on 1999. With the exception of Egypt where cereals are largely irrigated, dry conditions during the growing season resulted in sharply reduced output in all of the countries of the sub-region. As a consequence, increased cereal imports are anticipated in most countries during the 2000/01 marketing year (July/June).
In western Africa, harvesting is about to start in the Sahel and in the northern parts of the countries along the Gulf of Guinea. In the western half of Sahel (Senegal, The Gambia, Mauritania and Mali) following generally widespread and abundant precipitation over the main agricultural zones in July, crops are generally developing satisfactorily. By contrast, harvest prospects are less favourable in the rest of the Sahel as reduced rains affected crop development in central and eastern Burkina Faso, most parts of Niger and the Sahelian zone of Chad. Precipitation resumed in mid-September but crops have been stressed, reducing yield potential. In the southern parts of the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, the first maize crop has been harvested while the second maize crop has recently been planted. In the north, coarse grains are generally developing satisfactorily. In Liberia, harvest prospects remain poor due to the impact of past civil war, while in Sierra Leone, renewed fighting in May, the critical rice planting period, means that the country will continue to depend on food aid for the foreseeable future.
In central Africa, growing conditions are favourable so far in Cameroon and the Central African Republic. The security situation improved in the Republic of Congo following the peace agreement but food production has not yet recovered. In the Great Lakes regions, civil strife persists in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with massive population displacements and serious food and humanitarian conditions. In Burundi, dry weather adversely affected the 2000 B season crops in parts. The food situation of large numbers of people still in regroupment camps continues to be cause for serious concern.
Asia
A combination of heavy monsoon rains, tropical storms, typhoons and floods have seriously affected a number of countries in Asia including China, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Cambodia, Thailand, Viet Nam and Laos. In addition to enormous economic damage, hundreds of people have been killed and hundreds of thousands have had to be evacuated. Serious food shortages are reported from a number of areas, whilst the risk of disease is increasing fast. Humanitarian relief operations are underway but are being impeded by lack of access to many areas due to high flood waters. In India, following floods in north eastern states earlier in the season, the latest casualties were the states of West Bengal, which had devastating renewed flooding, Uttar Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh. Hundreds died and many were left homeless and in urgent need of drinking water, food and medical assistance. As a consequence of the floods overall rice prospects from the main kharif season also remain uncertain. Elsewhere, typhoons displaced and killed a number of people in China at the beginning of September, particularly in Guangdong and Hunan province, where an estimated 40 000 hectares of crops were damaged or destroyed. In contrast, main wheat and maize producing areas in the north of the country were earlier affected by serious drought which will result in a decline in wheat production this year to some 10 percent below average. Maize production is also likely to fall to its lowest level in 6 years. Serious drought also continues to have severe consequences in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where major dams and hydro electric facilities are running dry due to lack of water, wheat and barley production have fallen sharply and hundreds of thousands of livestock have died. Recovery in the livestock sector is expected to be slow even if normal rains are received during the rainy season from September/October. Harvest prospects in the DPR Korea are also uncertain following erratic and below average rainfall in the run-up to the 2000 cropping season. Reduced domestic production this year will have serious repercussions on the country's food supply situation which remains highly precarious due to a combination of natural disasters and economic problems over the last five years. Drought in July/August also hampered crop and fodder recovery prospects in Mongolia which is still suffering the consequences of the worst winter in 30 years earlier this year, which liked thousands of livestock and destroyed the livelihood of large numbers of the mainly nomadic population.
Across the eight CIS countries in the Asian region, the overall food supply situation is extremely tight and cereal import and food aid needs are sharply higher than last year. In Armenia. Georgia and Tajkistan, below-normal winter precipitation and hot, dry weather in the spring and summer, coupled with persistent shortages of inputs and poor maintenance of irrigation systems has resulted in sharp yield losses both of rainfed and irrigated crops. In the worst affected areas, rainfed crops have failed and irrigated crop yields more than halved. This has resulted in serious food and seed shortages which need to be addressed if production is to recover next year. In addition to cereals, potatoes, fruit, vegetables, oilseeds and other crops on which households rely for food security have also been affected. Moreover natural pastures are scarce and the production of fodder is very low, necessitating considerable destocking. As livestock production forms an important part of household protein intake and, in addition, the sale of surplus livestock produce is a major source of rural households' cash income, there is a need this year, not only for increased food aid for human consumption but also feedgrains. All these countries will require substantial food aid to cover the shortfall in domestic production this year.
Indications are that the other CIS countries in the region have been affected to a lesser extent by the drought but lower harvests are expected in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. In Uzbekistan, the northern oblast Karakalpakstan has been affected by inadequate precipitation with the result that water levels in the man-made lake in the region fell to very low levels causing crop failure. The area itself is not a major producing area for cereals, although rice is important, but as it adjoins the Aral Sea Basin, living conditions are already very precarious even in normal times and the inhabitants vulnerable not only to shortages but also disease. In Kazakhstan, the government expects the 2000 cereal harvest to decline from last year's post independence bumper level of 14 million tonnes to 11 million tonnes. Achievement of this target will depend crucially on good weather (i.e. no early snowfalls) until the completion of the harvest in the face of high prices and shortages of fuel. Only in Turkmenistan has the harvest increased. Official reports indicate that the cereal production this year exceeded the target of 1.65 million tonnes.
In the Near East, persistent drought continues to affect crop and livestock production in many parts. In Iraq, two consecutive years of severe drought and inadequate availability of essential agricultural inputs decimated crops, exacerbating an already tight food supply situation. In Afghanistan, the escalation of conflict coupled with severe drought-induced crop and livestock losses have left millions of people with poor access to food. As the winter season approaches, the situation is likely to deteriorate. In Jordan, agricultural production was sharply reduced for the second consecutive year due to continued drought. In Turkey, favourable weather conditions have helped crop production recover from last year's drought reduced harvest.
Latin America
In Central America and the Caribbean, the main food crop activities underway include harvesting of the 2000/01 first season cereal and beans crops. Crop prospects, particularly for maize, the main cereal, are unfavourable in El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, as a consequence of a severe summer dry spell ("canícula") which affected these countries for an unusually long period. International food assistance has been distributed for the last two countries. In Mexico, harvesting of the important spring/summer maize crop is about to start, and early production forecasts point to slightly above-average outputs assuming rains stabilize in main growing areas. In the Caribbean, the outlook is poor for crop production in Haiti and Jamaica, as a result of extremely dry weather at planting, while in Cuba and the Dominican Republic average output is anticipated.
In the southern parts of South America, planting of the 2000/01 wheat crop has been completed. Crops have generally been affected by adverse conditions such as low rainfall, frosts, dry spells or excessive rains in some of the main growing areas, particularly Brazil. Harvesting of the 2000 maize crop in this country has also been affected by the erratic weather. In the Andean countries, the outlook is poor for winter wheat in Bolivia, due to heavy rains and flooding at planting, while in Peru, above-average output is anticipated. Average wheat output is also provisionally forecast in Colombia and Ecuador.
Europe
In the EC, aggregate 2000 cereal production is set to increase by about 6 percent from last year to nearly 215 million tonnes. Wheat accounts for about 7.5 million tonnes of the increase, with output rising to an estimated 105 million tonnes, while coarse grains output is estimated to rise by about 5 million tonnes to almost 108 million tonnes. The rice crop is similar to the previous year's at about 1.8 million tonnes.
The 2000 cereal crops in eastern parts of the region have been struck by widespread drought lasting from the spring right through the summer in many countries. As a result, yields, especially of spring/summer crops, have been well below normal. The final outcome of the maize crop is still not known but this crop has generally been the worst hit. Total cereal outputs are expected to be down in all the eastern countries, with particularly sharp reductions reported in Poland and Romania, normally the two largest producers.
In the four CIS countries west of the Urals (Belarus, Moldova, Russian Federation, Ukraine) the harvest is well advanced. In the Russian Federation the food supply situation is expected to improve somewhat with the 2000 grain harvest likely to reach up to 66 million tonnes, some ten percent more than FAO's estimate of production last year. In the Ukraine, a reduction in the availability of yield enhancing inputs on credit, as well as very mixed weather, have likely led to an even lower cereal harvest than last year's. FAO tentatively forecasts the 2000 grain harvest at 24.3 million tonnes, less than the 27 million tonnes estimated in 1999. In Belarus, the 2000 grain harvest could recover to an estimated 4.5 million tonnes, still remaining below average but well above last year's poor 3.6 million tonnes. In Moldova the winter cereal harvest, affected by persistent drought, has turned out somewhat better than expected but the outlook for maize remains uncertain. Indications are that aggregate grain output in 2000 could be as low as 1.8 million tonnes. Exports of wheat have been banned to ensure domestic supplies.
In the Baltic countries, the economic and food supply situation is recovering from shocks caused by the devaluation of the Russian rouble. Although winter conditions were generally favourable for wheat and rye, a hot/dry spell in May/June followed by excessive rains in July/August affected spring feed grains and grain output could be lower, particularly in Lithuania but also Latvia. Cereal imports are not a major feature and the impact will be felt mostly by the livestock industry which also relies on natural pastures.
In the Balkans, Bosnia Herzegovina, Croatia and the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia have suffered the effects of the hot and dry spring and summer, resulting in sharply reduced spring crops (maize, oilseeds, sugarbeet, potatoes and vegetables). In Bosnia Herzegovina, the wheat import requirement is likely to continue its upward trend. In Croatia the winter wheat harvest (1.1 million tonnes) has recovered from the poor level of last year but maize and other spring crop production is set to halve. Nevertheless, some wheat exports are still anticipated. In the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, the 1999/2000 agricultural year has been exceptionally difficult as the combined result of man-made disasters, floods and waterlogging in the winter and prolonged drought this spring and summer. Output of wheat is less then 2 million tonnes but adequate to meet domestic needs. The production of spring crops is very badly affected. The country relies on exports of agricultural produce including cereals, livestock products and fruit to pay for essential imports of fuel and the outlook is for a difficult year with rising prices for food and fuel. Populations on low incomes need assistance.
North America
Total wheat production in the United States in 2000 is estimated at 62.7 million tonnes, similar to the previous year. As of early September the earliest winter wheat planting for the 2001 crop was just getting underway in some states. Coarse grains output in 2000 is now forecast at about 286 million tonnes, 8 percent up from 1999. The increase largely reflects a sharp rise expected in maize output, which is set to reach a record 263 million tonnes, 12 percent up from 1999. In Canada, harvesting of the main spring cereal crops got underway in late August. Average to above-average yields are expected in most of the major producing areas and the total 2000 wheat production is officially forecast at 25.4 million tonnes. Coarse grain production is expected to increase marginally this year, and is currently forecast at 27 million tonnes.
Oceania
The 2000 winter grain harvest is just starting in parts of Australia and prospects are generally favourable. Latest official forecasts put the 2000 wheat crop at 22.2 million tonnes, down about 2 million tonnes from last year's record output, but still the third biggest crop on record. The largest threat to the crops, which could alter the current outlook is an, as yet, largely unhatched locust plague, which spreads from western New South Wales (NSW) through to southern parts of the national wheat belt and into Western Australia. However, the situation is being closely monitored so that timely control measures can be taken.